I suppose I should have updated this earlier, but I've been pretty busy lately with poker (and getting owned by poker also). In December I had a good month at 2/4. Made about 7k while not playing very many hands.
This month has been FRUSTRATING. After 10 days, I have played 40-50k hands and am down over that period about $3400. I'm doing ok at 2/4 after breaking even for my first 30k hands, but I took some shots at 3/6 and 5/10 and have run horribly. All my big hands are getting cracked and every spot I'm getting into is tough. I suppose that's a product of playing at higher limits with better players, and I have made some less than optimal decisions, but overall I'm running pretty bad. I'm down 1k at 3/6 and 3k at 5/10.
I don't have a large number of hands at either of the higher limits, but I'm missing all my big draws that I'm playing for stacks, and basically any short stack is doubling up off me when I hit a big hand. For example, I 3bet QQ the other day at 5/10 to 150 (because there was a caller in between of the short stack opener and I). The short stack had 500 and called. Flop was KK9, he checked, I bet 120 and he check raised all in. I called and of course he had KTo. Completely standard hand, he's an awful player, but I ended up losing a 1k pot as a result of variance.
In another hand, I made a questionable play. A loose aggressive player opened UTG, and I 3b on the button with 56s. I think I messed up right there. I should have called, or folded. The 3bet was unnecessary, especially given the fact that he raised in early position. Big mistake on my part.
He called and I flopped a gutshot and a flush draw. He checked, I bet and he called. Turn was a brick and he checked again. Here again I messed up. I should have taken the free card knowing that his range was likely to call any bet, especially considering he was loose. Instead, I shoved for about the size of the pot. Obviously he had KK and obviously I missed.
At least I didn't bluff off a stack with garbage. I did have 12 clean outs. However, I played it poorly preflop and on the turn and I can't make those mistakes while playing at higher limits.
So after I lost the 3k at 5/10 I was in the middle of a $5500 downswing. I was pretty fucking pissed about it because I was nearly at 30k in my bankroll when it happened. I was also looking forward to a big January, and instead I'm stuck 3k almost halfway through the month. I should be clearing 10k/month at the very least.
I took the day off and am not going to play any limits higher than 2/4 other than a table or two of 3/6 when it runs. Usually that game is very good. I took a day off and won $1600 back yesterday. Of course, I played a table of 3/6 during the day and lost about $900, so I actually made $2500 at 2/4. It was fine, I got into a very +ev spot where I got KK all in against a flush draw and an over.
I'm rolled for 3/6 but it's not a huge deal if I play it even if I wasn't rolled. I'm just playing 1 table and am not going to play if the table sucks. I was getting worried that I'm not good enough to beat 2/4 after doing so poorly, but the fact is I was getting very unlucky. I think I also wasn't playing aggressive enough. We'll see. I'm definitely staying away from 5/10 for now.
As for this year, I need to clear $100k. I should have done it last year but I didn't play enough. It's long past time for me to start making 6 figures/year. I need to start saving up and investing in real estate and other things, and I can't just keep this cycle of playing whenever my roll is getting low and then taking time off. This year I'd like to play at least 80k hands/month and hopefully move up to 5/10 by the end of the year.
-Prabs